Analisi Faktor - Faktor yang Mempengaruhi Harga Crude Palm Oil (CPO) Dunia

Abstract

ABSTRACT Crude Palm Oil which often abbreviated as CPO is now becomes the belle of Indonesian export commodity. It can be seen from the growing export and production of national CPO. Not only in Indonesia, the world’s market share of CPO has increase since 2004 and CPO has been a primary supplier for world vegetable oil. CPO supply is dominated by two countries; Indonesia and Malaysia. But until now the world market price of CPO still controlled in Europe, particularly Rotterdam markets as criterion. This is because the price of CPO is more sensitive for the changes of demand and the price of soybean oil as the main competitor. By considered this conditions, it is necessary to do research on what factors are affecting the world price of CPO. The general objective of the study is to analyse the factors that affect the world price of CPO. Then the particular purpose to analyze variables such as the width of world’s palm plantations for 5 years time lag, the cost of crude palm oil production, world production of soybean oil, world’s soybean oil prices, world CPO demand for the previous year, and world crude oil prices vs world’s CPO price both directly or indirectly through intervening variables. The source of secondary data as many as 40 quarterly data between 2000 to 2009. This study used structural equation Path Analyis supported with AMOS (Analysis of Moment Structure) application program. The result of study shown that CPO production costs and world soybean oil production has the significant influence on the world's CPO supply. Furthermore, oil palm plantations world wide with 5 years time lag, world production of soybean oil, world palm oil supply, world soybean oil price, the previous year palm oil demand and world crude oil prices has significant influence on the world CPO price. The variables that unsignificantly affect was world palm plantations wide for 5 years time lag towards the world’s CPO supply and the cost of CPO production influence on the world CPO price. Key words: World’s palm oil plantations wide for 5 years time lag, the cost of CPO production, world’s soybean oil production, world’s soybean oil prices, world CPO demand for the previous year and crude oil prices.

ABSTRACT Crude Palm Oil which often abbreviated as CPO is now becomes the belle of Indonesian export commodity. It can be seen from the growing export and production of national CPO. Not only in Indonesia, the world’s market share of CPO has increase since 2004 and CPO has been a primary supplier for world vegetable oil. CPO supply is dominated by two countries; Indonesia and Malaysia. But until now the world market price of CPO still controlled in Europe, particularly Rotterdam markets as criterion. This is because the price of CPO is more sensitive for the changes of demand and the price of soybean oil as the main competitor. By considered this conditions, it is necessary to do research on what factors are affecting the world price of CPO. The general objective of the study is to analyse the factors that affect the world price of CPO. Then the particular purpose to analyze variables such as the width of world’s palm plantations for 5 years time lag, the cost of crude palm oil production, world production of soybean oil, world’s soybean oil prices, world CPO demand for the previous year, and world crude oil prices vs world’s CPO price both directly or indirectly through intervening variables. The source of secondary data as many as 40 quarterly data between 2000 to 2009. This study used structural equation Path Analyis supported with AMOS (Analysis of Moment Structure) application program. The result of study shown that CPO production costs and world soybean oil production has the significant influence on the world's CPO supply. Furthermore, oil palm plantations world wide with 5 years time lag, world production of soybean oil, world palm oil supply, world soybean oil price, the previous year palm oil demand and world crude oil prices has significant influence on the world CPO price. The variables that unsignificantly affect was world palm plantations wide for 5 years time lag towards the world’s CPO supply and the cost of CPO production influence on the world CPO price. Key words: World’s palm oil plantations wide for 5 years time lag, the cost of CPO production, world’s soybean oil production, world’s soybean oil prices, world CPO demand for the previous year and crude oil prices.