Analisis Determinan Cadangan Devisa Indonesia

Abstract

The main objective of this study is to find out whether is there simultaneously relationship in the equation of net foreign reserve, net export, foreign exchange and foreign direct investment. Therefore, this study also to analyze the influence of foreign direct investment, foreign reserve before and foreign debt on foreign reserve in Indonesia. The influence foreign reserve, foreign direct investment and inflation on net export, the influence net export, money supply and interest rate SBI on foreign exchange and then the influence foreign exchange, gross domestic product and interest rate SBI on foreign direct investment for while research periode time was 1989-2009. The method of analysis used is 2 SLS to know the relationship simultaniously. The identification shows that the condition in simultant equation is overidentified so that the method used is Two Stage Least Square (2 SLS). The based on for result estimation on 2 SLS method (Two Stage Least Square) on equation of foreign reserve shows the foreign reserve before influential positively and significant with level á = 5% on foreign reserve. The foreign reserve and foreign direct investment influential significant on the net export and then net export, money supply and interest rate SBI influential positively and significant on the foreign exchange and interest rate SBI, gross domestic product and foreign exchange influential significant on foreign direct investment.

Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk mengetahui apakah terdapat hubungan simultanitas dalam persamaan cadangan devisa, net ekspor, kurs dan investasi asing langsung. Penelitian ini juga ingin menganalisis pengaruh investasi asing langsung, cadangan devisa sebelumnya dan utang luar negeri terhadap cadangan devisa Indonesia. Pengaruh cadangan devisa, investasi asing langsung dan terhadap net ekspor, pengaruh net ekspor, jumlah uang beredar, dan suku bunga SBI terhadap kurs, serta pengaruh kurs, GDP dan suku bunga SBI terhadap investasi asing langsung selama kurun waktu periode penelitian 1989-2009. Metode analisis yang digunakan untuk mengetahui hubungan simultanitas adalah 2 SLS (Two Stage Least Square). Dan kaidah identifikasinya menunjukkan bahwa kondisi pada persamaan simultan mengalami overidentified sehingga memungkinkan untuk menggunakan metode 2 SLS. Berdasarkan hasil estimasi metode 2 SLS (Two Stage Least Square) pada persamaan cadangan devisa menunjukan bahwa cadangan devisa tahun sebelumnya berpengaruh positif dan signifikan dengan tingkat kepercayaan   5%terhadap cadangan devisa. Cadangan devisa, investasi asing langsung dan inflasi berpengaruh positif dan signifikan terhadap net ekspor serta net ekspor, jumlah uang beredar dan suku bunga SBI berpengaruh positif dan signifikan.