Penerapan Fuzzy Time Series Lee dalam Meramalkan Nilai Tukar Subsektor Peternakan di Sumatera Utara Tahun 2022

Abstract

Fuzzy time series (FTS) Lee is a new concept of the FTS method which is a development of the Song and Chissom, Cheng, and Chen models in predicting a value in the future. The purpose of this study was to obtain the forecast value of the Exchange Rate of Farmers Subsectors Farm (ERFSF) in North Sumatra from June to August 2022 and to obtain the Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) value. The stages of this research start from forecasting using order 1 Lee FTS and continue by using Lee 2 order FTS. The results of NTPT forecasting in North Sumatra obtained using order 1 in June are 102.2 with a MAPE value of 0.353592%. The results of forecasting NTPT in North Sumatra obtained using order 2 from June to August, respectively, are 102.2, 102.6, and 103 with a MAPE value of