Implementasi Metode Double Exponential Smoothing Brown Untuk Prakiraan Produksi Padi di Kabupaten Dairi Tahun 2021-2022

Abstract

Forecasting is an attempt to predict future conditions through testing past conditions. In essence, the forecast is only an estimate, but by using certain techniques, the forecast becomes more than just an estimate. The exponential smoothing method is a moving average forecasting method that gives exponential or graded weights to the latest data so that the latest data will get a greater weight. The best parameter obtained for forecasting rice production in Dairi Regency from 2011-2020 data with smoothing parameter = 0.1 was selected by trial and error. The forecast for rice production in Dairi Regency in 2021 is 108,720.00 and in 2022 as much as 109,701.90 tons with an MAPE error rate of 28%