Analisis Perkembangan Covid-19 di Kota Medan Menggunakan Time Series Arima

Abstract

Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) is a type of infectious respiratory disease caused by the SARS-CoV-2 virus. The Covid-19 pandemic is an epidemic that is almost all over the country or continent that infects many people. The city of Medan is one of those listed as a city with a red zone. This study aims to determine the development of Covid-19. This study uses the ARIMA time series method. The ARIMA method comes from a combination of Autoregressive (AR), Moving Average (MA). The ARIMA method that fits the Covid-19 data is the ARIMA (1,1,0) model. at parameter p-value > 0.05, the parameter results obtained are AR(1) of 0.056 for confirmed cases treated, 0.011 for confirmed cases cured and 0.089 for confirmed death. So the forecast for the next 1 year period starts from April 2022 to April 2023.