Model Ketidakpastian Untuk Suplai Air pada Irigasi Pertanian

Abstract

Irrigation demands depend on farmers' decision on when and which crops to produce, how much water to apply, and which irrigation technologies to use. Decision involve short- and long-term commitment of resources. Therefore farmers need to make decision about water and land use for economic purposes based on water availibility. This paper purposes a two-stage economic production model under uncertainty to examine the effects of hydrologic uncertainty and water prices on agricultural production, cropping patterns and water, and irrigation technology use. The model maximizes net expected farm profit from permanent and annual crop production with uncertainty water availability and a variety of irrigation technologies. There are some discussions and variations on the model obtained.