Model Pertumbuhan Kota Rawan Bencana Tsunami: Studi Kasus Kota Banda Aceh

Abstract

The growth of buil-up area in Banda Aceh was rapid afer he tsunami disaster. This growth needs to be controlled to support the realization of a susiainable city. The purpose of this study was to determine the patiern of growih that occurred. Between 2005 10 2009, he influence of socio-economic aspects and biophysics, and prediction of future whan growth. The study was stared from the Classification of land use/cover (LUC) of 2005 an 2009 from satellite imagery 10 produce maps of LUC 2003 and LUC 2009. Prior 1 use for modeling, each LUC was tested their accuracy, 77.5 % for LUC 2005 and 89.4 9% for LUC 2009. Logistic regression was used lo identify the influence of eight driving factors, resulting in a soft prediction. The urban growth was predicted By using. the CA- Markov Built-up area between 2005 and 2009 increased by nearly 100 % The pattern of urban growth was nil and expansion, and growth followed the patiern of the road. Socio-economic and biophysical aspects had significant effect on the urban growth. The model fits with the avilable data, where -2LL1 11,087.765.5817 and -2LLo 10,318,004.6841. ROC analysis resulted in values of 0.68, above 0.5, which indicate that the produced model s good. The prediction results indicate that the probability of growing of built-up area In the city center 15 higher than other parts of the city