Pengaruh Pendapatan Asli Daerah, Dana Perimbangan, Belanja Daerah, dan Transfer Pemerintah Provinsi terhadap Budget Forecast Errors pada Kabupaten/Kota di Provinsi Sumatera Utara Periode 2018-2020

Abstract

This study aims to determine the effect of Local Own-Source Revenue, Balance Fund, Local Expenditure, And Provincial Government Transfer On Budget Forecast Errors. The population in this study were all districts/cities in North Sumatra Province for the 2018-2020 period, namely as many as 33 districts/cities covering 25 districts and 8 cities for the 2018-2020 period. The data analysis techniques in this thesis are descriptive statistical analysis, classical assumption test, multiple linear regression analysis, and hypothesis test. The independent variables in this study are Local Own-Source Revenue, Balance Fund, Local Expenditure, And Provincial Government Transfer, while the dependent variable is Budget Forecast Errors. Sampling was carried out using the saturated sampling method, obtained 33 districts/cities as samples from 2018 to 2020. This research data is secondary data, namely data from the official website of the Directorate General of Fiscal Balance, Ministry of Finance of the Republic of Indonesia. The results of this study indicate that simultaneously Local Own-Source Revenue, Balance Fund, Local Expenditure, And Provincial Government Transfer have an effect on Budget Forecast Errors in districts/Cities in North Sumatra Province. Partially, Balance Fund and Provincial Government Transfers have a significant positive effect on Budget Forecast Errors in Regencies/Cities in North Sumatra Province. Meanwhile, Local Own-Source Revenue and Local Expenditure have no effect on Budget Forecast Errors in Regencies/Cities in North Sumatra Province.