Analisis dan Proyeksi Tingkat Kenyamanan Iklim Wisata di Kawasan Geopark Kaldera Toba

Abstract

Caldera Toba Geopark is one of the Geoparks in Indonesia as a tourist destination that depends on natural potential to be vulnerable to climate change. Climate comfort aims to provide recommendations for the best time and place to travel.. Climate comfort indices such as TCI and HCI can be applied in Indonesia because the climate parameters used such as air temperature, rainfall, wind speed, sunshine duration and cloud cover are still present in the tropics. Climate parameters are part of the thermal, physical and aesthetic aspects of climate comfort weighting. Climate analysis data in this study were obtained from weather observation stations in the Caldera Toba Geopark area and ECMWF, while data from the RCP 4.5 scenario projection with the ACCESS 1-3 model. Using the TCI and HCI methods, the results of temporal pattern analysis on the climate comfort index both in the 1991-2020 period and climate projections in the 2031-2050 period have a 'Bimodal - Shoulder Peak' distribution pattern. The results of temporal and spatial pattern analysis with the TCI method, the level of tourist climate comfort for the 1991-2020 period is dominated by the comfortable category with a peak of very comfortable comfort in December. While the HCI method is dominated by the very comfortable category with a peak of comfort in December. The lowest comfort level occurs in June at the Sibaganding - Parapat geosite with an uncomfortable category. The level of climate comfort in the period 2031-2050 with both the TCI and HCI methods is dominated by the comfortable category index where the peak of comfort occurs in December with a very comfortable category. The lowest comfort level in the TCI method occurs in June with a comfortable category, while the HCI method in July with a comfortable category. In the end, the results of this study provide recommendations for the best tourist time in the Caldera Toba Geopark from September to December. The recommended geosite locations are Simanindo - Batu Hoda and Hutatinggi - Sidihoni geosites.