Analisis Pengaruh PDB Rill, Kurs, Inflasi, dan Cadangan Devisa terhadap Impor Migas dan non-Migas di Indonesia

Abstract

International trade is one of the ways to increase the country's development and economy. Indonesia is one of the countries that engages in international trade by importing goods and services of oil and gas and non-oil and gas. The research aims to analyze the effects of Real Gross Domestic Product, Exchange Rates, Inflation and Foreign Exchange Reserves on the imports of Oil and Gas and Non-Oil and Gas in Indonesiafrom 1991 to 2021. The research utilizes annual data from Indonesian financial statistics issued by Bank Indonesia and Central Statistics Body. The results of unit root tests indicate that the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model is the most appropriate model for this research. In addition, the results of simultaneous research on coefficient of determination indicate R-Squared of oil and gas imports is 0.949479 or 94.9479% while R-Squared for non-oil and gas imports is 0.908210 or 90.8210%. Partially, in the short term, Real Gross Domestic Product, Exchange Rates and Inflation are positively and significantly correlated with both oil and non-oil and gas imports, while foreign exchange reserves only positive and significant effects oil and gas imports. In the long term, Gross Domestic Product and Exchange Rates negatively and significantly affect oil and gas imports but do not significantly affect non-oil and gas imports. Inflation has positive and significant affects on the imports of oil and gas and non-oil and gas. Foreign exchange reserves positively and significantly affect oil and gas imports but does . not negatively and significantly affect non-oil and gas imports.