Analisis Pengaruh Penanaman Modal dalam Negeri, Penanaman Modal Asing, Jumlah Penduduk, Jumlah Kriminalitas dan Jumlah Pengangguran terhadap Pertumbuhan Ekonomi di Kabupaten Deli Serdang

Abstract

The aim of a country or regional development is to improve the welfare and. prosperity of society in a fair and equitable manner, one of which is by increasing a sustainable economic growth. By achieving a high economic growth, both unemployment rates and crime rates will be decreased, and economic structure will change that lead to a positive impact on economic growth. The main objective of this research is to analyze the effects of domestic capital investment, foreign capital investment, population size, crime rates and unemployment rates on economic growth in Deli Serdang Regency. Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) approach is applied as data analysis method to time series data model and the observation is conduc1ed from 20IO until 2021 where data interpolation will be carried out quarterly. Based on the analysis results, Domestic Capital Investment and Foreign Capital Investment have a positive and significant effect on economic growth. Meanwhile, population size, crime rates and unemployment rates have a negative and significant effect on economic growth in the long run. However, in the short term, domestic capital investment, foreign capital investment, population size, and crime rates have a positive and significant effect on economic growth. On the other hand, only unemployment rates has a negative and significant effect on economic growth. Based ontheresults, Deli Serdang Regency Government should optimize the programs that can boost investment both domestically and abroad, suppress the rates of population growth and unemployment rates as well as maintain regional security in Deli Serdang Regency area.