Analisis dan Prediksi Kenaikan Muka Air Laut dan Penurunan Muka Tanah di Belawan

Abstract

Climate change can lead to rising sea temperatures that affect sea level rise due to ageing sea water volumes and polar ice melting. The rise of the sea's surface poses a threat to the areas that are on the coast and the shoreline of the Belawan Fields. One of the consequences is a rob flood. Flooding usually occurs during the rise of sea water, which is then exacerbated by the decline of the land surface, so that both sea surface rise and land subsidence, are factors in the increase of the flood restraint of the river. The aim of this study is to analyze and predict sea level rise and land subsidence in Belawan Field district as well as its influence on the flood stagnation of the robbery in Belawan. The rate of sea level rise was analyzed using data from the 2012-2022 recession and 1993-2022 sea level anomaly data. Land subsidence was analysed using satellite image data from SAR Sentinel-1 A for 2017-2022. The methods used to calculate the recession component using the admiralty method, sea level rise using the linear regression method, land subsidence using the DInSAR method, and rob flood mapping using geospatial modeling with GIS. The results of this study show that the value of sea level rise is 0.22 mm per year based on the data from the recession and 4.5 mm per year based on satellite data. The average land subsidence in the Belawan Field district was 7.44 cm/year. The area of robbery in the Belawan Field district continues to increase from 57.15% in 2021 to 88.92% in 2031 and will reach 99.49% by 2051 if no mitigation process is under way.