Analisis Penjadwalan Proyek Menggunakan Simulasi Monte Carlo (Studi Kasus : Proyek Pembangunan Kolam Galatama)

Abstract

In planning and implementing a project, there are three things that need to be considered, namely cost, quality and time. In the time aspect, determining the duration of work is very important. This is because the time aspect can affect costs or quality. This research was carried out on the Galatama Pool Construction Project, where the scheduling carried out by the contractor used a deterministic method which assumes that the duration of the work is known with certainty. By using a probabilistic method in the form of Monte Carlo simulation, a time estimate can be obtained that takes into account the risks and uncertainties that may occur. By using a questionnaire to obtain optimistic and pessimistic times for each task in the project from the contractor, a Monte Carlo simulation can be carried out with the help of the application named Crystal Ball. The research results show that the use of Monte Carlo simulation provides durations with greater probabilities, where each duration has the following probability: planned duration 230 days with a probability of 6.14%, optimistic duration 226 days with a probability of 2.23%, average duration 247 days with a probability of 74.77%, and a pessimistic duration of 272 days with a probability of 100%