Analisis Pengaruh Fluktuasi Harga Komoditas Pangan terhadap Inflasi di Kota Medan Tahun 2018-2023

Abstract

The purpose of this research was to analyze the effect of price fluctuations of seven food commodities, namely rice, shallots, red chillies, bird’s eye chillies, cooking oil, chicken eggs and chicken meat on inflation in the city of Medan in the short and long term. The data used is monthly time series data for the period January 2018 to December 2023. This research used VECM (Vector Error Correction Model) as the research method and estimate the model with Eviews 12 software. The results showed that (1) In the short term, variables that have a significant effect on inflation in Medan City are the price of red chillies on the previous month, the price of cooking oil on two previous month, the price of chicken eggs on the previous month and the price of chicken meat on the previous month. Meanwhile in the long term, there are five variables that have a significant effect on inflation in Medan City namely the price of red chillies, bird’s eye chillies, cooking oil, chicken eggs and chicken meat. (2) In the short term, food commodity prices that contribute to explaining the variation of inflation in Medan City, from those with the most influential to the smallest namely chicken eggs, rice, cooking oil, bird’s eye chillies, chicken meat, red chillies and shallots. Meanwhile, in the long term the order of variables that contribute to explaining the variation of inlation in Medan City include: chicken eggs, bird’s eye chillies, rice, cooking oil, red chillies, chicken meat and shallots.