Prediksi Perubahan Tutupan Lahan Menggunakan Model Artificial Neural Network-Markov Chain di Daerah Aliran Sungai (DAS) Belumai

Abstract

Human needs for land will always increase along with population growth. This will certainly affect land cover changes that are getting higher and can have an impact on land use change and the environment, especially in watersheds. One of the watersheds that has the potential to be affected is the Belumai watershed. Belumai watershed is located in Deli Serdang Regency and has a large population so that this triggers land cover changes in the Belumai watershed. This study aims to analyze land cover change in Belumai watershed in 2013, 2018, 2023 and will predict land cover in 2033. This research uses 5 driving factors, namely distance from the river, distance from the road, slope, elevation and population density. This research uses Artificial Neural Network-Markov Chain modeling to predict land cover change in 2033. The results showed that the prediction of land cover in 2033 in the Belumai watershed was water bodies 93,50 ha (0,12%), dryland forests 4,337.11 ha (5,52%), mangrove forests 107,54 ha (0,14%), settlements 6.497,79 ha (8,26%), plantations 44.225,29 ha (56,25%), dryland agriculture 14.616,49 ha (18,59%), rice fields 7.326,89 ha (9,32%), ponds 587,94 ha (0,75%) and open land 832,66 ha (1,06%).