Analisis Faktor-Faktor yang Mempengaruhi Volume Ekspor Teh Indonesia ke Pakistan

Abstract

Pakistan is one of the main destinationcountries for Indonesian tea eksports. The volume of Indonesian tea exports to Pakistan tends to decline. The aim of this research is to determine the development of the volume of Indonesian tea exports to Pakistan, the price of Indonesian tea exports, the amount of Indonesian tea production, the population of Pakistan and Pakistan's GDP and to find the influence of independent variables on the volume of Indonesian tea exports to Pakistan. The data used in this research is time series data in annual form starting from 1990 to 2021. The analysis method used is Autoregressive Distributed Lag. The results of this research are that in 1990-2021, the average development volume of Indonesian tea exports to Pakistan was -2.94%, the export price of Indonesian tea was 2.19%, the amount of Indonesian tea production was -0.13%, the population of Pakistan was 2.27% and GDP Pakistan at 7.78%. Partially, the volume of Indonesian tea exports to Pakistan in the previous year, the price of Indonesian tea exports in the previous year, the amount of Indonesian tea production, the population of Pakistan and Pakistan's GDP have a significant effect on the dependent variable of the volume of Indonesian tea exports to Pakistan. The export price of Indonesian tea and the amount of Indonesian tea production in the previous year partially had an insignificant effect on the dependent variable of the volume of Indonesian tea exports to Pakistan. Variables that have short-term balance are the volume of Indonesian tea exports to Pakistan in the previous year, the amount of Indonesian tea production in the previous year, the population of Pakistan, Pakistan's GDP and the amount of Indonesian tea production. Meanwhile, the variables that have long-term balance are the amount of Indonesian tea production, the population of Pakistan and Pakistan's GDP.